Just a few comments from the presentation at the Board of Supervisors meeting. My comments usually have something to do with environmental concerns, of which there are many on this proposal. But I'm looking at it from a business perspective.
First, you MUST see the video if you haven't already. I promise you will either love it or hate it depending on your vision for the former Explore Park site. The link is on the Roanoke Times web site, and it's only 15 minutes, so if you're interested enough in this issue to be reading this, you should watch the video. Be sure to notice when the narrator describes Roanoke as a "city of 350,000".
Board Chairman Mike Altizer (Vinton) asked Mr. Vander Maten about the availability of the property to local citizens. In his reply Mr. Vander Maten made an analogy to Disney World, an attraction that is in his home town of Orlando. Many people there don't go to Disney World at all (he said he hadn't been in the last ten years or so). Others buy a season pass and go several times a year. Still others might go once in a while and just buy a single day pass. HIs answer suggests that Virginia Living History's vision does not include local free access to hike/bike trails or the Roanoke River. He mentioned that local people might want to come out and eat in the restaurants, but it wasn't clear whether there would be an admission charge to get on the property for that purpose.
Mr. Vander Maten stated on at least two occasions that the cost of this development would be "well in excess of $200 million" (not "about $200 million as reported in the Roanoke Times). He further stated that no lender has been willing to offer to finance this venture in the current economic climate. It should be noted that he began seeking funding for this project some time ago, before there was a recession going on. The reality of an investment such as this (from a lender's perspective) is based on what happens if the borrower is unable to repay the loan - how does the lender get the money back? In nearly all cases, they will want collateral that is worth as much as the amount of the loan. Should the project be built and be successful from a revenue standpoint, it would be worth quite a lot. Should the project be started but not completed, it wouldn't be worth much at all. If it were completed but not making enough money to survive . . . well, you get the point. Hard to borrow money on something like this. Surely Virginia wouldn't offer the actual land as part of the collateral(?).
How much money would it need to make to survive? Just grabbing numbers out of the air, let's say we're happy with a 10% return on investment, and the real cost is $300 million (thats "well in excess of $200"), so the profit would need to be $30 million. Let's guess the operating expenses are $10 million per year. Debt service on the $300 million loan would be $18 million per year (at 6% interest). So the gross revenue would need to be $58 million annually.
Vander Maten says that most of the revenue will be coming from overnight visitors (let's guess 75%, the other 25% from day visitors and restaurants). The place accommodates 700 people and will be open 9 months of the year (270 days), so to get $43.5 million (75% of $58 million), assuming full occupancy, each of those 700 people would have to spend about $230 every day (or $460 for a couple). Meanwhile, the day visitors (let's just say for simplicity's sake there are 1000 of them every day for nine months) would have to spend about $53 each. Of course there are ways you could push things to generate more revenue. Some activities could go on in the winter, but it would be very limited. These numbers are based on FULL occupancy, each and every one of those 270 days.
Real businessmen and businesswomen who are in the money lending business will be doing math like this. I know, I used to be one myself.
Local leaders seem to be inclined to let Vander Maten continue to pursue his goal of making this project a reality. There is probably little harm in this. The land isn't going away, though there are some concerns about maintenance and deterioration of the historic structures.